Amir Korangy
“Somebody who comes into the market now and uses all of the information available to them could immediately become an expert.”
Next transfer of wealth will occur in the real estate commercial space.
The best deals in New York city are the unrealized areas.
“Real Estate is very dynamic. It is constantly changing and shifting, and even a small shift can mean a lot. It can mean a lot in gains or a lot in losses. So being on top of and understanding those shifts, understanding where you want to come in, and for what asset class, and what area, and what price is crucial. If you really follow it full time, you can make the right decisions.”
Gary Phillips
“Network. Meet as many people as you can, even if you know nothing's going to come out of it. Just get in front of people. It's all about who you know.”
“If you are looking to buy a condo or co-op in New York City right now, the best value is on the Upper East Side. If you want to find good value for newer apartments, Lower Manhattan, too.”
Office Space: “Well, It's the largest asset class and it's not going anywhere. It's evolving. But it's experiencing a K-shaped recovery (after recession). And the upper leg of the K is vastly outperforming the bottom leg. There is a growing divergence between the haves and the have-nots in the space. It's one of the sectors where the story is going to be winners and losers. And that's certainly becoming very, very evident in the market today.”
Interest Rates Impact: We're in a business that is highly sensitive to volatility and rates. As the cost of borrowing goes up, the value of real estate goes down.
K-Shaped: Performance of different parts of the economy diverge like a K.
Simon Ziff
“Real estate to me is much more of a people business, I don't even have to see the Real Estate. If our firm does 130 deals a year then it’s not even important to me to see the 130 deals, but I certainly know about the 130 borrowers that we might represent.”
“It is so important to be 100 % correct in what you are producing, we scrub numbers to make sure what we are representing is correct.”
The vacant office: “People who bought pretty big office deals are most likely going to do well. They are much cheaper than they would have been two years ago.”
NYC Real estate as an investment vs other places - “ New York is still the greatest city in the country so I would rather put money in the strong New York city office as opposed to other cities”
Partner Larry Ackman always said: “good business ethics is always good business.”
Michael May
Advice: “Learn the ins & outs, work hard, and bury yourself in Excel.”
Best value to invest in co-op & condo: “Depends where you’re going to get the most appreciation, or where you’re going to find the cheapest place to live.
Brooklyn is getting great pricing.
Highest pricing is downtown Manhattan.
“In bad markets, there is an over-pendulation to conservatism. When pricing gets better the market turns, and then at some point it can get so competitive that credit goes bad, and that is where you have to be concerned. And if you get credit wrong it is a catastrophe.”
Will 2024 & 2025 be a buyer’s or seller’s market ?:
2024 will be a buyer’s market.
Capital markets will improve and interest rates will decrease.
For top quality product: office space, residential, retail, there is great pricing.
May’s prediction: 2025 will be a seller’s market.